by Brian G. Daigle
11) Education will lean up. Education, an industry like other industries, may experience budget cuts, layoffs, delayed expansion and bonuses, and financial tightening. This means the status quo for the whole will be the status quo for the part. 10) Higher education admissions will rise. Interest in and admissions to higher education increases. This also includes pursuit of vocational training and career advancement in particular. It is a curious thing that one of the key features of higher education is that it runs in the opposite direction of the economy, for young students and adults alike. Jobless? Go get trained and educated. Online universities and colleges will be the greatest beneficiaries of this influx. 9) Private schools will contract. Private educational institutions will limit expansion and more aggressive market growth. Private educational institutions, which function (for the most part) as small non-profit corporations, often do not have much cash on hand, so during a recession they can stretch their cash reserves further and make existing loans count for a bit more in their operations and maintenance. Nonetheless, because charitable giving likely goes down during a recession, private institution spending will either freeze or experience prudent cuts for the short-term. 8) New college graduates will feel the pinch. College students looking to enter the labor market will experience a tighter market of job and career options. Of course, this is not the case in every industry or sector, but it is the prevailing narrative. New college graduates will have to be patient, steadfast, and a bit more intentional to ensure they a) are financially secure for the short-term, and b) move as swiftly as possible into the most reasonable next career step when it presents itself. 7) Drowning schools will take on more water. Schools already financially hurting will feel the greatest effects. A boat already taking on water will only take on more water in bigger storms. This means, as is the case with any industry, that those institutions and organizations not 6) Water-logged schools will sink. If water-logged boats aren't equipped, organized, and ready to bail out the water, they will sink, and that means some educational institutions will be forced to close during a recession. This is, however, true in any industry, so there should be no surprise there. As in our personal finances, a national recession will always drop the parts of the whole that weren't already strong enough to make a case for themselves and support through the storm. 5) Great teachers will rise, and bad ones will be obvious too. Teachers who were not strong teachers allow the economic and institutional uncertainty to even more negatively affect their vocation, confidence, classroom creativity, and overall mastery of their teaching craft. This means great teachers become more pronounced in hard times and worse teachers also become more apparent. If administrators have their eyes open, they will see potential future leaders rise among the ranks during hard times, and that is priceless. 4) Values will be magnified. We see, in a given state and even in a given industry, what is truly valued. During a recession, lawmakers may move money earmarked for education to support other areas. These financial movements during tough times show just what lawmakers value, and voters ought to pay close attention here. Furthermore, educational institutions will do the same. A school system or private school will have to make some financial decisions during a recession, and what they choose to support or let drop off is based on values. Pay close attention. 3) Parents become more important. Parent partnership becomes even more important in schools during an economic recession. There is not doubt in economic hardship, the more fractured a society or institution is, the higher its chances of failing. This means hardships, among virtuous and good-willed people should bring higher comradery, partnership, and cooperation. Economic recessions, when parents and schools alike are hurting, are great times to build personal relationships, lean into shared resources, partner with parents for care and consistency, and keep the weight of it all off the children, 2) New educational models will emerge and grow. New educational models receive greater interest and innovation. Modern education is far too expensive, and so when finances are cut, learning must continue, and this is where human innovation can be at its best. Today, online education, microschools, and home education will receive the greatest amount of interest during economic downturns. All three are simpler, more cost effective, have a higher partnership with parents (which creates further stability in the home), and during hard times parents are willing to use the economic change as an academic change, taking a risk that perhaps they had ignored in order to limit other rising pressures. 1) True education rises. What's interesting is that true learning, in the broader human economy, doesn't cost that much. In fact, it doesn't cost anything. We are the most prosperous nation in human history, and yet it can be clearly seen that our general educational body is more than wobbly. As in a home, our financial wealth does not depend on whether true and meaningful and lasting learning is happening. Real learning, deeply human learning, knows no financial bias. Therefore, if a school or school system wasn't doing real education prior to a recession, they won't do it during or likely after, and the stress points will only make that more obvious.
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